There's an idea these days that the pomegranate can save Afghanistan. I first read about it during the summer. Being sceptical, I did some research on it at the time. I recently read another article on it so I feel inclined to actually write something about it.
When I first read about it, I got excited and did a database search on the U of T libraries journal search for just about every combination of words I could think of that could possibly relate to pomegranates.
In fact, I got absolutely nowhere.
Don't think this has something to do with being at some shabby university or something. U of T spends millions a year on subscriptions to thousands of research journals (and believe me, I took advantage of it while I was there), that are all available to students through the library website.
Don't think it's because I didn't know what to look for. My principle interest has to do with relationships between conflict and sustainable farm management in dry areas. Did you know that roots have roots hairs? Well, to my knowledge, I've read every substantial piece of research on root hair development that has been produced in the last 15 years.
Why is that relevant? Root hairs are the primary way that plants can increase its surface to volume ratio in the soil, which is of incredible importance when operating in nutrient poor soils. Aside from nutrient concentration itself, nutrient uptake is generally a factor of how much water is around, the pH of the soil and the texture of the soil. This allows for somewhat refined treatment of the shoot-to-root ratio, which is a variable that is commonly used to explain a number of factors throughout a plant's development.
Of course, there are lots of factors, both scientific and social, that are pertinent to the potential role of the pomegranate. I searched for every combination I could possibly think of, and got nowhere.
Then I went online for the normal searches. I mean, pomegranates have been around for a long time. Perhaps there would be such a basis of common knowledge about the fruit that there was no need for academic research.
Excited, I repeated my searches, then broadened things into more general terms that are more likely to be used by botanical enthusiasts outside of academia.
What did I find? Well, not much at all, but of particular note is that pomegranates need a LOT of water.
This leads to a few major points.
1) It appears that there is no expert knowledge on the pomegranate, yet it is being promoted as a saviour to Afghanistan's developmental problems. We are telling farmers to plant the trees and we don't know a damn thing about the plant. An orchard is a very long-term investment, which generally means waiting 3 to 5 years until the tree becomes productive. The required returns to make an investment worthwhile in such a risk-prone environment can easily be discounted to the point where most sensible farmers are going to tell the development 'experts' to take a hike. Never mind the fact that, to my knowledge, there is no tradition of operating orchards in recent generations in Afghanistan. We don't know what we're talking about and neither do they. Not a good place to start an industry.
2) The bloody country is practically a desert. OK, that's not quite true. Between Afghanistan and desert lie arid and semi-arid, whereas I think that many parts of Afghanistan fall somewhat closer to sub-humid, but dude, the place is dry! No problem, they say, we're building a dam, so there will be lots of extra water. Right … OK, as though we couldn't find a better use for that water than to grow one of the most water intensive plants around.
3) Anyone interested in stumping up a billion dollars worth of fertilizers? I mean, poppies grow like weeds there, but pomegranates ... well that's going to take some serious inputs. Do we seriously think that these farmers will keep up with the pomegranates after we stop giving them free fertilizers?
OK, so I'll be honest. I typically hate it when people dig into an idea and have nothing better to offer. I don't know how to get the farmers out of the opium markets. I don't know how to get the farmers into formal markets where they can leverage their orchards as capital tools for other investments.
But hey, what a great time for a science experiment! Since we don't know what we're talking about either, I suggest two approaches to moving forward with this whole pomegranate thing. Let me be clear that these both come from the perspective that, to my knowledge, the pomegranate is grossly unsuited to being the backbone of growth in Afghanistan simply because the tree is not suited to the dry climate and poor soil.
The first idea is to allocate a million dollars a year for the next 5 years to funding grants for universities in departments of ecology, evolutionary biology, soil sciences, botany, agriculture, etc. Spread it over a dozen or so separate programs so as to end up with a variety of methodologies and results that can be compared under different strategies. The upside is that we will have a better idea of the fine technical details of how well-suited the pomegranate is to the climate and soil conditions in Afghanistan. The downside is that we'd have to wait five years to tell the Afghans what to do (whereas I prefer the idea of providing technical information and support for a variety of options that farmers might want to consider), by which point in time we may have even less ability to influence Afghan farmers' production decisions.
The second idea is to get the Afghan farmers to do the science experiment themselves. Simply put, limited support for the pomegranates could be provided with a firm condition that certain amounts of data needed to be collected rigorously from the orchard. No white elephants indeed. A handful of variables would be enough, and could be easily crunched by your average desktop computer after the data was input. Meanwhile, a certain number of random root, leaf and fruit samples could be sent along with details of fertilizer treatments and soil samples, to a nascent department of agronomy at the soon to be growing University of Kabul.
This kills a whole flock of birds in one barrage. First, farmers are off opium production, which cuts into resources for militants. Second, firm commitments to a lump sum of cash in exchange for samples and some very simple data may be sufficient to overcome the effect that risk aversion would have on long term crops involved in orchards. Third, it creates the seeds of some domestic growth of agricultural expertise, research and technical knowledge. Fourth, in specific terms, a gap in knowledge is filled as research on pomegranates is carried out. Fifth, an orchard is a tangible asset that can be leveraged for further economic investments. Sixth, the project as I described it directly draws attention to the relation between crop choice, farm management and the effects that these may have on soil fertility in the long term.
The potential downside? With poor soil and dry climate, we have the perfect ingredients for rapid soil degradation, so control measures must be built into any projects that seek to encourage Afghan farmers to adopt crops that are not presently cultivated in any significant quantity.
Will it get farmers out of opium markets?
I have no idea. It might fail miserably with a finding that pomegranates are a terrible choice for Afghanistan. BUT, either way, the second idea should make for good public relations with the people and might bring numerous spinoff benefits, as described above. Way better than just handing out seeds and saying hey, try this.
I’m still a sceptic on the pomegranate. I think the ideal crop will be one that is chosen with consideration to its climatic compatibility and/or its ability to generate and improve inherent soil productivity (such as in intercropping or where orchard crops are chosen among species which fix nitrogen in their leaves, and thus provide free fertilizer from the leaves). Furthermore, the science and economics of it don't matter one bit if the farmers decide that they're not interested in growing the plant that the 'experts' recommend. Still, if some of those development wizards down at the FAO are intent on pomegranates, let’s do it in a way that creates opportunities even if the project doesn't pan out.
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